Public track record
How accurate is Matchwise?
Every prediction from the statistical model is graded automatically against the real result and published here — the misses included.
Since 26 July 2026, Matchwise has publicly graded 6,118 predictions across six sports, with a 73.4% best-pick hit rate — 74.1% over the last 30 days (2,983 graded).
73.4%
All time
6,118 graded
6,118 graded
74.1%
Last 30 days
2,983 graded
2,983 graded
71.2%
Last 7 days
652 graded
652 graded
6
Sports graded
since 26 July 2026
since 26 July 2026
By time window — all sports
| Window | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Last 7 days | 652 | 71.2% |
| Last 30 days | 2,983 | 74.1% |
| All time | 6,118 | 73.4% |
By sport — all time
| Sport | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Football (soccer) | 2,328 | 77.4% |
| Basketball | 530 | 72.3% |
| Baseball | 1,594 | 65.8% |
| Ice hockey | 683 | 68.4% |
| American football (NFL & NCAA) | 807 | 80.5% |
| Volleyball | 176 | 78.2% |
By sport — last 30 days
| Sport | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Football (soccer) | 848 | 78.5% |
| Basketball | 317 | 71.8% |
| Baseball | 560 | 67.9% |
| Ice hockey | 605 | 69.2% |
| American football (NFL & NCAA) | 557 | 80.0% |
| Volleyball | 96 | 75.6% |
Football — by type of best pick (all time)
Safer markets hit more often. This breakdown is published so the headline rate can be read in context.
| Best pick market | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 764 | 73.4% |
| Home Win or Draw | 683 | 79.1% |
| Away Win or Draw | 418 | 82.5% |
| Away Win | 242 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 126 | 78.3% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58 | 85.9% |
| Both Teams to Score | 37 | 83.0% |
How to read these numbers
- What is graded: the single best pick that Matchwise's statistical model (STT) makes for each match — one pick per match, chosen before kick-off.
- What a hit is: that pick won against the official final result. The definition is fixed and identical for every sport.
- Not a "winner" accuracy: the best pick is often a lower-risk market (double chance, a goals line), so this rate is higher than a straight match-winner accuracy would be.
- Nothing is filtered: every graded match counts, bad days included. Sports with fewer than 30 graded matches in a window are shown as "new" instead of a percentage.
- Past results do not guarantee future results. Matchwise is an analytics service, not a bookmaker: it does not accept wagers, hold funds or place bets. Content is for users 18+ and is informational only.
Full methodology: how predictions are graded. Today's fixtures: live scores.