How Matchwise predicts a match.

Every match gets a statistical prediction (STT) automatically — free to view on the matchwise.pro scores board. Users can additionally ask Matchwise AI (MTW) for a deeper read. Both are graded against the official final result, and the statistical model's record is published at /accuracy.

1. STT — the statistical model (every match)

Football uses a Dixon-Coles Poisson model. Each side's expected goals come from venue-specific form — the home team's scoring and conceding at home against the away team's record away — with Bayesian shrinkage toward the league average for small samples and a head-to-head blend when enough meetings exist. Early in a season or for national teams it falls back to the last ten matches. The goal model is then blended with bookmaker odds: the 1X2 and over/under prices are de-vigged and converted into market-implied expected goals, and the bookmaker's exact-score board is folded into the scoreline candidates.

From that blended model STT derives home/draw/away probabilities, the most likely half-time and full-time scores, over 2.5 goals and both-teams-to-score probabilities, and one best pick — the market it rates most likely to land.

Basketball, baseball, ice hockey, NFL and volleyball use a margin-and-total model built from each team's recent games (last ten, recent games weighted double), anchored to the market's moneyline, spread and total. Form can only tilt the market's view by a bounded amount, and confidence is capped whenever the model disagrees with the market favourite — a model that confidently fights the betting market is usually wrong.

STT is recomputed at most three times per football match: when the fixture first appears, about 24 hours before kick-off and about 6 hours before kick-off, so late team news and odds are reflected.

2. MTW — Matchwise AI (on request)

Matchwise AI receives four independent views — the STT anchor, the de-vigged market (including its exact-score board), how the odds have moved since opening, and venue-specific team profiles — and must confirm team news (injuries, suspensions, rotation, the starting pitcher, goalie or quarterback) with a live web search before committing. For football it returns half-time and full-time scores; for every sport it returns a 1–10 confidence grounded in the market probability, a short written case and distinct picks ranked by confidence. Its rules are calibrated from its own graded history: for example, it may only disagree with the statistical model and the market on the winner when it can name a concrete, current fact.

3. Market movement ("steam")

Odds are snapshotted from the opening line onward. A selection is flagged strong steam when its price shortens by at least 12%, or by at least 8% across three or more consecutive cuts. Movement is shown on the free scores board and fed to the AI as evidence — supporting, never decisive on its own.

4. How predictions are graded

• Each match is graded once, automatically, against the official final result (regulation time plus overtime where the sport has it).
• The public track record grades the statistical model's single best pick per match. That pick can be a straight win, a double chance or a goals/points line, whichever the model rated most likely — so this hit rate is not the same thing as "picked the winner" accuracy.
• Every graded match counts, including bad days. Nothing is removed after the fact.
• Per-sport rates are only shown once a sport has at least 30 graded matches in the window; below that they are labelled as new rather than shown as a percentage.

5. Coverage

• Football (soccer) (36): Premier League (England), La Liga (Spain), Serie A (Italy), Bundesliga (Germany), Ligue 1 (France), UEFA Nations League, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, UEFA Europa Conference League, Primeira Liga (Portugal), Eredivisie (Netherlands), Süper Lig (Turkey), Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina), Jupiler Pro League (Belgium), Serie A (Brazil), Liga MX (Mexico), Major League Soccer (USA), Premiership (Scotland), Superliga (Denmark), Super League (Switzerland), Super League 1 (Greece), Bundesliga (Austria), 2. Bundesliga (Germany), Championship (England), Segunda División (Spain), Serie B (Italy), Ligue 2 (France), Eerste Divisie (Netherlands), Championship (Scotland), World Cup, FA Cup (England), Copa del Rey (Spain), CONCACAF Champions League, CONMEBOL Libertadores, Copa America, Euro Championship
• Basketball (16): NBA (USA), Euroleague, ACB (Spain), Lega A (Italy), Super Ligi (Turkey), Basket League (Greece), Super League (Israel), LNB (France), BBL (Germany), NBL (Australia), NBA - G League (USA), LNBP (Mexico), CEBL (Canada), NBA W (USA), BIG3 (USA), NBA - Las Vegas Summer League (USA)
• Baseball (5): MLB (USA), NPB (Japan), KBO (South Korea), CPBL (Taiwan), LMB (Mexico)
• Ice hockey (11): NHL (USA), KHL (Russia), SHL (Sweden), Liiga (Finland), National League (Switzerland), Extraliga (Czech Republic), DEL (Germany), Extraliga (Slovakia), AHL (USA), AIHL (Australia), NZIHL (New Zealand)
• American football (NFL & NCAA) (2): NFL (USA), NCAA (USA)
• Volleyball (17): Champions League, Champions League Women, European Championships, European Championships Women, SuperLega (Italy), Serie A1 Women (Italy), Sultanlar Ligi Women (Turkey), PlusLiga (Poland), Superleague (Russia), SuperLiga (Brazil), Efeler Ligi (Turkey), TAURON Liga Women (Poland), Superliga Women (Brazil), Ligue A (France), 1. Bundesliga (Germany), Nations League, Nations League Women

6. Editorial process (blog)

Blog articles are drafted daily by Matchwise AI from a published news report and grounded in a live web search for current facts, quotes and figures. The process filters out recurring quiz and trivia formats and skips stories already covered. Articles are informational football coverage, never betting advice. Full details: editorial standards.

What we don't do

Matchwise is an analytics service, not a bookmaker: it does not accept wagers, hold funds or place bets. Content is for users 18+ and is informational only.