Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano: Prediction vs Result

How will Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano end?

It ended Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano. Matchwise's pre-match best pick (Home Win) won.

Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4-1 in the La Liga. Before kick-off Matchwise's model had Real Madrid as 79% favourites and its best pick — Home Win — won.

Win probability

Real Madrid79%

Draw12%

Rayo Vallecano9%

Matchwise statistical model (STT), blended with the betting market. Probabilities, not certainties.

What Matchwise predicted

Predicted score2-0 (HT 1-0)

Best pickHome Win 79%Pick won

Over 2.5 goals66%

Both teams to score44%

Expected goals (model)2.35 – 0.50

Most likely scores2-0 12% · 3-0 11% · 1-0 10%

Actual result4-1 (HT 3-0)

Goals

14'Kylian Mbappé (pen)Real Madrid
17'Álvaro Fernández CarrerasReal Madrid
35'Jude BellinghamReal Madrid
51'Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano
90+1'Kylian MbappéReal Madrid

Match stats

56%Ball Possession44%

24Total Shots18

11Shots on Goal7

11Corner Kicks5

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

Head to head

Date	Match	Score
1 Feb 2026	Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano · La Liga	2-1
9 Nov 2025	Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid · La Liga	0-0
9 Mar 2025	Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano · La Liga	2-1
14 Dec 2024	Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid · La Liga	3-3
18 Feb 2024	Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid · La Liga	1-1

FAQ

What was the score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano (half-time 3-0), played on 12 Sept 2026 in the La Liga.

Did Matchwise predict Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano correctly?

Matchwise's best pick was "Home Win", and it won. The model's predicted score was 2-0. Every pick is graded against the official result and counted in the public track record.

Matchwise is an analytics service, not a bookmaker: it does not accept wagers, hold funds or place bets. Content is for users 18+ and is informational only. More La Liga predictions · track record · how it works.

Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano